P-ISSN: 2808-0467
E-ISSN: 2808-5051
Homepage: https://iss.internationaljournallabs.com/index.php/iss
1593
TRIADIC RECIPROCAL DETERMINISM AND RATIONAL CHOICE
THEORY: A CASE STUDY OF ROHINGYA REFUGEE
Valentia Nadya Dasadwiastaning
HIGHSC, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
valentia.toar@gmail.com
PAPER INFO ABSTRACT
Received:
October 2022
Revised:
November 2022
Approved:
November 2022
Background: The similarities among the refugee looks like a phenomenon
that needs further research. Those theories are a part of behaviorism and the
decision-making approach. It can be used to predict alternatives choice and
also which alternatives the actor or agent will determine.
Aim: This study tries to analyze the behavior of Rohingya refugees with
triadic reciprocal determinism and rational choice theory. It also profoundly
concerns how the decision to act adopted by refugees is almost similar,
whether in steps or goals.
Method: This research uses a qualitative approach and sources from journals,
articles, and interviews from online news. All the data sources will be
analyzed with the theory already mentioned above.
Findings: While Rohingya get safe and are placed in a temporary camp,
some flee and do not want to wait for status determination. They have similar
goals and behaviors that guide them to choose better alternatives. Being
smuggled by a third party is one of the rational choices they make. That
choice is determined based on behavior that constructs their rationale. Factors
in triadic reciprocal determinism are also related to alternatives choice that
they make, which is part of the social cognitive process.
KEYWORDS
refugee, Rohingya, triadic reciprocal determinism, rational choice, social cognitive
© The author(s). This work is distributed under the terms of the Creative
Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-SA 4.0)
INTRODUCTION
Myanmar is a part of ASEAN countries with various ethnicities. Most of them,
approximately 70% of the population, are from Burma, Bamar, Shan, Kachin, Kayin, Kayah
(Karenni), and Chindan Mon. Besides there are also Muslim Rohingya. Muslim Rohingya is a
minority ethnic living around Arakan, conterminous with Bangladesh (Yumitro, 2017). Even
if Muslim Rohingya have lived in Arakan for a long time, Myanmar society deems them as
outsiders. Myanmar Government has been doing discrimination against Rohingya since around
1970. The government expelled many Muslim Rohingya. In 1589, Myanmar admitted 135
ethnics in Myanmar, except Rohingya. At that moment, they considered Rohingya illegal
immigrants from Bangladesh (Albert & Maizland, 2020). Being a stateless citizen causes
Rohingya ethnic difficulties in getting their rights as ordinary citizens. Based on previous
research, stateless status primarily attaches to minority groups (Middleton IV & Flores, 2020).
So it can trigger majority groups in that country to discriminate rights of minority groups
already categorized as stateless. Even minority groups will be prone to criminal activity by
other groups or local citizens. In this case, the Myanmar government often does such ethnic
cleansing of Muslim Rohingya (Juwana, 2017). Myanmar government's decision to determine
Rohingya ethnic status as Stateless is not the right decision because, in fact, Rohingya itself
already existed as a part of the region in Myanmar a long time ago. So, they cannot consider
Rohingya as stateless.
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Based on the law for citizen status, countries cannot determine a person’s status if that
person already stay for a long time in that region or as long as a person is still in the same area,
they cannot determine that person as a stateless (Achiron, 2014). The Myanmar government's
decision about the stateless Status of Rohingya will only put Rohingya even in a worst position.
The majority in Myanmar will do discrimination against Rohingya and put more pressure on
them. Therefore, it is essential to diminish stateless status in every country so that every country
can minimize the number of conflicts also violence.
The stateless status given by the Myanmar government deliberately violates the
fundamental human rights of Rohingya not getting political rights and discriminating culturally
and economically. Rohingya Moslem resident in Rakhine is considered a natural resource
competitor, making the tension even higher between Rohingya and Buddhist Myanmar.
The tension increased in June 2012 when the government wanted to change the system
into a democratic one. It triggered the violence in some areas where, at the same time, in
Rakhine, rape and murder occurred toward Buddhists suspected by Muslims. As revenge,
Buddhists in the area killed seven Muslims in Rakhine (Fuller, 2012). The attack continued
from June to October 2012, and this action got support from the local government. The local
authority also spread hate speech to Rohingya and asked them to leave the area. Due to the
high mass killing of Rohingya, most Rohingya Residents flee and evacuate. In June, the death
toll rose to 200. Besides, the number of Rohingya refugees in Indonesia was recorded to drop
to 282 refugees.
After the humanitarian crisis, some countries and International Organizations also help the
Rohingya Muslims. UN World Food Programme also sent medicines and other human help,
but the Myanmar government did not let it in (Holmes, 2017). Government officials prohibit
access to food, drug, sanitation, and shelter, especially Ankachin.
The aid rejected is 95% of 562 appeals of human action from June 2017 to Juli 2018
(McCarthy, 2018). The access shutdown of humanitarian aid causes food shortages and rising
diseases caused by the lack of clean water and sanitation. The problem still has not been solved,
but the instability induceRohingya to keep moving to surround countries to seek refugee status.
More than 700.000 people seek refugee status in other countries, and more than 200.000 people
choose to stay in Bangladesh (Swedish International Development Agency, 2018). Insecurity
among Rohingya is contrary to the human security concept that the state must fulfill. As a
social institution, the state should protect all social groups, including minorities, to keep them
safe. While fulfilling state security, concern for individual and the community are also
necessary. With the completion of the security concept, every individual should be free from
fear, get what they want, and have freedom of dignity (Mardila, 2020). However, in Rohingya
cases, the Myanmar government is becoming the root of insecurity.
Further, the violation of Rohingya rights will worsen the conflict between the majority and
minority and affect state security stability. Insecurity threatens and attacks Rohingya, making
them want to leave Myanmar and seek sanctuary so they can continue their life with freedom
to live and freedom of fear. On their run, they use a small boat through the sea.
Most of the Rohingya people hope to move to Malaysia. Still, in most cases, they were
saved by Indonesian border patrol when they were in an emergency due to the condition of the
boat or the passenger itself. In 2018, there were 300 refugees in Aceh; most of them were saved
from their stranded boats (Ishak, 2018). Saved and welcomed by Aceh people did not make
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them want to stay. Most of them choose to flee to Malaysia from Indonesia even though it will
risk their lives. Some did not hesitate to pay 6000 ringgit or around 20 million rupiahs to get
smuggled into Malaysia, carried out by local people in Aceh (BBC Indonesia, 2022). It means
some factors affect them to decide Malaysia as their destination country. The decision to choose
Malaysia as their destination, the standard of living, experience, and environmental factors
drive them, including from Indonesia, where local Indonesians help them flee.
METHOD
This research uses using qualitative approach along with sources from some journals,
articles, online, and some interviews from online news. All the data sources will be analyzed
with the theory already mentioned above.
This research begins with an explanation of the Rohingya condition in Myanmar. It started
with a conflict between Buddhist Myanmar and Muslim Rohingya. Hence, the decision of the
Myanmar Government which revoke the white card and determine Rohingya status as stateless
unintentionally trigger a violation of Rohingya fundamental rights. Furthermore, it also gives
a bigger chance to the majority to discriminate against a minority which is Muslim Rohingya.
Discrimination and violence that happened simultaneously encouraged Rohingya to flee to
other countries.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Myanmar government decided to revoke the identity card, which is the white card used by
Rohingya. That condition puts such pressure on Rohingya, especially in elections, where
Rohingya cannot vote for their choice in Myanmar. This action also brings fear for Rohingya
because they are also connected to discrimination and violence from BuddistRakhine, where
in 2012 causes 200 people were killed, and 140.000 people were displaced. Most victims of
that tragedy are Rohingya (Marshall, 2015). In this case, a conflict between Rohingya and
Buddhist Rakhine also triggers discrimination act against Rohingya.
Moreover majority in Myanmar is Buddhist. So, it is accessible to that act toward the
minority. In some cases, discrimination act even worse, along with a conflict that always
happens. There is a limitation on marriage, education, religious activity, etc., towards
Rohingya. For example, in marriage cases, a Rohingya couple named Maungdaw and
Buthidung allowed only two kids to the Myanmar government.
Furthermore, when they get married, the bride must submit a photo without wearing
headscarf as a part of the marriage requirement. It makes Rohingya feel uncomfortable with
that law because the headscarf is a part of their religion. Also, in education in 2012, most
Rohingya found difficulties applying to universities in Burma. Even the different education
standards between Rohingya and Myanmar. Because of it, some of them who already graduate
or have experience in teaching will voluntarily teach other stateless Rohingya people (Cupi,
2021). They do that because they want to help their community, so it can be helpful for them
to look for a job in the future. However, when they want to apply for a job, they will find it
challenging to find a legal and decent job because they do not have a legal identity and status
as stateless. These factors are making them decide to run away from Myanmar. In addition,
they fear being killed if they stay in Rakhine, Myanmar. The decision of Stateless Rohingya to
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escape from Myanmar by boat will endanger them. Many Rohingya refugees ended up in the
sea and died. Some of them get to turn back and live in uncertainty in the ocean.
The wrecked ship, which Rohingya used to flee from Myanmar, was founded within a
distance 50 miles away from Aceh Coast, Indonesia. Most of them on the boat are women and
children (Cunningham, 2021). Mostly, they threaten to commit suicide or burning themself if
the authority turns them back to Myanmar (Yulika, 2021). Though Indonesia has not ratified
the Agreement on Refugee, the Indonesian government still wants to rescue the Rohingya
refugee for humanitarian reasons. Saving and putting Rohingya refugees in detention indirectly
forces refugees to stay in a temporary camp in Aceh.
On the other hand, their decision to flee unintentionally became part of the consequences
of ASEAN regional security. That is why all members of ASEAN countries should cooperate
to overcome this problem. After rescuing a Rohingya refugee, thus Indonesian government
placed them in a temporary camp in the Bireven district. However, the refugee feels neglected.
So, they do complain about that condition. To cope with that problem, the Indonesian
government transfers them to proper facilities, even though they still have limited facilities.
Furthermore, to provide more facilities, the government tries to offer bigger places in Riau
for refugees. For the transfer process, the Indonesian government is also concerned about how
refugees can live with the local community without conflict (Lusiana & Maruto, 2022). It
needed to be considered because it happened in Aceh. There, the local community battles with
the refugee due to the refugee wanting to escape from Aceh to Malaysia. The local community
in Aceh said they already expel 114 Rohingya refugees with a statement that the refugees were
getting angry.
In contrast, the community tries to warn them not to escape the camp (CNN Indonesia,
2022). Even the refugee in Pekanbaru tries to escape even though they already have decent
facilities. So, there must be a strong reason that influences the refugee to keep running away
even though they are already in a safe place and far away from the conflict zone in Myanmar.
Bandura Theory or Social Cognitive Process
social learning theory is part of behaviorism theory that also puts social cognitive in
explaining some behavior considered affected by another person's behavior. Bandura's Social
Learning theory says that someone will adapt to their environment's behavior through
observation behavior of another person (PennState, 2014) so that it can be understood that
humans behave according to their surrounding environment. In this case, refugee usually
spends most of their time with the refugee community. Their previous situation in Myanmar
also constructs the interaction between them because they face the same condition in Myanmar.
As a result, their behavior as a refugee is to get their interest, such as getting the fundamental
rights they do not get while in Myanmar. Their purpose in life, in their perspective, is to get
safe, freedom from fear, and a good life. The social and cognitive process can be the primary
point of comprehending human behavior. Hence, we can see their motivation, emotion, action,
choice, and way of thinking. It is in line with Bandura's theory, which argues that human agency
clarifies the ability and capacity to guide themself over control of the way of thinking,
motivation, and the action itself. Motivation is also essential because it can encourage attention,
practice, and retention (iSALT Team, 2014). Based on it, we can assume that motivation
influences individual behavior. The cognitive process refers to all characters analyzed before,
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including beliefs, expectations, and personal character (Westin, 2022). In social cognition,
there is a causal model involving triadic determinism. Three factors drive the behavior such as
environment (E), individual (P), and behavior itself (B) (Abdullah, 2019).
The interaction pattern of the Triadic Reciprocal Determinism model has been drawn in
the chart below:
Figure 1. Triadic Reciprocal Determinism Model
The Triadic Reciprocal Determinism Concept is a core concept of the social cognitive
theory. It relates to dynamics and individual reciprocal interaction by learning their experience,
environment, and behavior as a response to reaching their goal or interest (LaMorte, 2019).
This concept from Albert Bandura can be used to see the causal dynamic between the
environment and the internal factors of the individual itself. This concept also refers to how
individuals act and how that act can influence society (Hossain & Ali, 2014). For the Rohingya
escaping case, we can use this chart to see how their behavior and environment can influence
each other.
In the chart above, three instruments define how the environment and individuals connect
to construct a behavior—starting with personal factors where individuals begin to imitate
another’s behavior amongst themselves and learn it. In Rohingyacasealmost every refugee
intended to imitate another Rohingya refugee behavior that had already succeeded in escaping
to Malaysia. Their step looks similar, especially when they try to use a syndicate by paying
them around 4,000 RM - 6.000 RM to help them flee to Malaysia (Firdausi, 2022). After
spending the syndicate, they escape camp by jumping from a fence in detention. Twenty-six
refugees do the same steps, which were recorded on CCTV while running. Even it was also
followed by eight refugees after. All of them have the same destination, which is Malaysia.
They said that their goal in Malaysia due to have families member there. Also, they have the
Rohingya communities in Malaysia. It makes them expect to live better in Malaysia like their
families are already succeeding there (Syukur, 2022). From dynamic personal factors, it can be
seen that refugees have similar steps and expectations. Similar destinations and expectations
that the refugees haveis result in learning another habit in their environment. So, it resulted in
the same behavior.
The second instrument is the environment which is also related to personal factors. In this
instrument, the refugee tries to learn or imitate behavior surround. Here also, when the refugee
gets input from refugee surround, begin with the ideal life they can get after out of Myanmar,
how they connect with the syndicate and have to pay and how they can flee from a camp. It
can be approved by seeing their act. They tend to have similar actions and steps. It is assumed
PERSONAL
FACTOR
ENVIRONMENT
BEHAVIOUR
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that individuals in Rohingya refugees try to learn from their society and unintentionally imitate
their behavior. This instrument also puts a condition where we can put the agent-like syndicate
as a support environment factor that encourages the refugee to make an escape plan. Another
state that influences their decision is the refugee does not have certainty while waiting in the
camp. The environmental situation makes it easy to connect to the syndicate, and unpredictable
life in a camp is a core factor for the environment that encourages refugees to take risks to
escape.
The third instrument is behavior. In this part, the refugee acts to objectify their expectation
or goal. The refugee looks at it carefully so they can go to their destination country, Malaysia.
Meanwhile, other refugees that have not decided on their plan or steps will not act. They will
take a look at their surroundings and try to learn them.
Conversely, some have already started to get influenced and construct their behavior like
others. They do this step until they have a chance to run away. Some also make a phone call to
ensure their plan will get support from their family (in this case, they need money as support).
Acting to make contact or make a phone call to their family is a step they take before running
away.
Based on the analysis above, it can be assumed that the refugees already have a decent and
safe place, so they do not need to rush to get away from the transit camp. However, the
interaction between Rohingya refugees has triggered other factors, such as their choices.
Similar behavior among Rohingya also resulting similar expectations and knowledge. Most
refugees define their freedom as “running away to places they expect to be ideal places to live
and start their life.” Limitations of knowledge have also influenced their expectation and
behavior. Rohingya as a refugee, have limited information. They act without considering a risk
they can meet while running. Some do not know when to wait until they can go to their
destination country. They learn from their community and imitate it, which causes repetition.
Based on it, there must be rational alternatives choice that drive the refugee aside from
reciprocal behavior determinism. They can choose and implement because circumstances can
sometimes affect the action. So in that situation, we need to consider their rational choice aside
from factors in Triadic Reciprocal Determinism.
Rational Choice Theory
While deciding a decision, there is a cognitive process attached to a choice. When choosing
an alternative, people are usually influenced by a cognitive process. Thus, it argues that social
cognition is often connected to the 'Choice' of the person. Every decision should have some
alternative to consider. Rational choice theory is used when the person starts their decision
process. Thus this theory is used to analyze the decision-making process. The choice concerns
every individual's condition (Amadae, 2016). In this theory, when individuated in this process,
they will take external factors as an option, but when they decide to do such action, they will
put their desire and interest as dominant roles. It happened because humans always expected
high results that gave them an advantage in the future. Therefore, indirectly, individuals will
justify their behavior to reach their interests. The argument is in line with the idea that supports
the rational choice theory. It was also argued by a philosopher, Adam Smith, who said in his
essay that Human nature has a tendency toward self-interest, and it controls the "invisible
hand,” which is the collective actions of the self-interested. The term “invisible hand” here was
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taken from Thomas Hobbes (Leviathan) (Nickerson, 2021). Another assumption that came
from Abell stated that the individuals had done action. Individu also moves society and always
act rationally (Ogu, 2013). It means that rational choice theory always refers to individualism,
which can be used to analyze societal phenomena.
Action that comes from people can predict another behavior in their society that often have
a similar decision. Besides, Abell also argued that individuals and social activities are based on
the desires of individuals and reffering to their well-being (Ogu, 2013). That assumption is in
line with human nature, which puts humans as selfish When they want to reach their well-
being. In some cases, when making a decision, even though they have a lot of input, they will
finally look for another option/ alternative to help them gain their goals. This theory also can
be used as support of social learning theory because triadic reciprocal determinism refers to
individual behavior through social interaction.
In contrast, Rational Choice Theory explains why individuals sometimes choose
alternatives that differ from their community in certain conditions. Rational choice also
clarifies that sometimes a person makes unpredictable choices due to unforeseen situations.
Therefore, they will choose another alternative they reason that possible to implement. It is
also essential to use because it can analyze the unpredictable choice of individuals. Though
most Rohingya in detention have similar steps and expectations, some refugees choose a
different action because they have certain factors where the factor could be an obstacle while
implementing similar behavior.
Here is a diagram that explains the decision flow.
Figure 2. Rational Choice Flow (Elster, 2009)
The diagram above shows that in rational choice theory, three inputs drive the action:
desires, beliefs, and information. Desires as a factor mean 'want' based on individual emotion,
where that emotion will activate action and become part of their motivation. In some aspects,
desire will move, referring to their social identity. Rohingya refugees put themselves as a
community under much pressure while trying to fulfill their fundamental rights. Because of it,
they expect to move to a safe country to get their rights without an obstacle quickly. They also
want to reunite with their community in Malaysia and expect to have the same life. Most of the
community members of Rohingya in Malaysia find it easier to find a job than in Myanmar. In
an interview, former police in Riau said that "even though the Indonesian government is already
preparing a proper place for Rohingya, they will keep running away from detention because
Desire
s
Action
Beliefs
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Malaysia is a place that has a Rohingya community which almost reached 100.000 people. A
family member or the spouse takes responsibility for their life" (Nurman, 2022). Another story
comes from Rukiyah Hatul (20 years old), who wants to visit Malaysia to meet her relatives
(Rappler, 2015). It is assumed that the refugee chooses to flee instead of stay in detention
because they already have a goal and expectation to trigger their action. They also have an
emotion of hope that they live better with their partner or family in Malaysia. They want to live
with their relatives or partners without being separated by distances and rules.
The second input is beliefs, where in this input, an actor (individual) feels confident that
their expectation goal is the right thing to achieve. It is almost similar to making a justification
of the expectation. Beliefs are usually created by previous information that they already collect
before. Without beliefs, an individual (actor) will confuse about what action they want to take
(Aguiar & de Francisco, 2009). The Rohingya refugee gets the information that they have a
right to go to a third country while they feel unsafe in a previous government. However, most
of them do not know some steps and rules to do while trying to reach another country.
Meanwhile, they also get input information from their relatives in Malaysia about how
they can get there without waiting for the refugee status process. Instead of considering the risk
of Violating the law, they choose to escape recklessly based on the belief that they have the
right to a better place and life. Moreover, they are confident that the international community
will help them achieve their rights. They also believe that information about skipping the status
determination of refugee status can speed up their action for achieving their goal. Refugees
choose this alternative because it can Speed up their time, rather than just waiting for uncertain
decisions. In an interview, a staff of UNHCR, Mitra Suryono, "The Rohingya refugee is a
minority that have a poor and pitiful life so that they will seek a better future for themselves
and their family (Tambunan, 2021). The information from their relatives about getting a better
life in Malaysia triggers other Rohingya refugees to believe that their expectation is the right
thing to do. This phase is when they create their beliefs as justification for their action.
After those inputs, there is usually a phase when they create alternatives. These alternatives
help them reach their goals, but if an obstacle obstructs their action, they will try to develop
new options to keep achieving their goals. The refugee chooses a similar alternative, but if
there is an unpredictable condition, they will choose another alternative based on their
rationale. Rohingya refugees decide to stay instead of run away due to their rationality about
the risk. On the other hand, refugees keep choosing the alternative to running away because
they already consider the consequences and about high security in detention. They prefer to
take all consequences because, rationally, they think its better than just living in uncertainty in
custody or possibly returning to Myanmar. Some implications of each alternative are that they
can die but every choice has a different result. The research analyzes possible options that
refugees have are:
1) Run away from detention so they can speed up their time and do need to waste their
time waiting for the process in custody with consequences the refugee status could be
rejected, and there are possibilities the government will return them to Myanmar; and
2) Keep waiting and consider the risk while escaping such as sanction, kidnapping, and
trafficking.
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Based on those alternatives, some chose the second alternative, while few chose the first
alternative. Because some refugees have Strong beliefs about escaping, they keep running away
amid the risk that they already predict.
How actors (individuals) get information as input to decide their desire will then determine
an option related to their beliefs. While doing an action should be based on desires, and wishes
can be given a solid reason to lead the actor. Besides that, desires themselves should have a
connection with beliefs. Beliefs create a rational option to convince actors so they have
justification. The justification will come from information that they get before. So, it can be
assumed that beliefs can be created by desires related to the news they can trust.
CONCLUSION
Human action is driven by certain factors like Rohingya refugees who choose to flee and
try to go to their final destination country even if there will be sanctions on their run. The
sanction did not seem to be a barrier for them to go to their destination country. The motivation
that drives them has an underlying explanation. Their habit that is socially constructed among
Rohingya refugees could be one explanation. In the Rohingya case, they did not have a limit
of fear, and there is something that structure drives them to have the same goal and no
boundary. In this case, we see the construction not from culture; instead, it is already
constructed on their primary point of view through imitating behavior and perspective
surround. In doing an action amongst choice, it is not enough to depend on imitating
community behavior. There should be an emotion that drives their choice. It is in line with the
fact that there is Rohingya refugee that choose to waut and stay rather than run away. Their
emotion and rationality have encouraged them to wait until the administration process is done.
While others also have a feeling that leads them to run away because they want to meet their
family in Malaysia. Hence, people can use the Triadic Reciprocal Determinism to predict and
analyze how they do their step until they run away. On the other side, people put rational choice
as a support theory to explain different acts that choose by a few refugees among the refugee
surround that run away. The rationale can also explain why they rationally imitate the Rohingya
refugee community's behavior.
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